Recap and Lock Pick

A 1-4 week will sure make Year to Date numbers look pedestrian. I now sit at a lackluster 10-8-1. I have a couple of upsets and a few bad breaks to blame.

I will be leaving out of town on wednesday, so here are a couple of early picks.

LOCK - I'm sure that the line will move, so get in early on this one. The San Diego Chargers are a pick em agains the Bills. I still feel that the Bills are under rated and the Norv Turner led Chargers are over rated. Albeit the Chargers are poorly coached, they still outclass the Bills in talent. It also seems that field general Trent Edwards is questionable for the start.

Also, take the NO Saints +3 at Carolina Panthers
and
SMU +12 1/2 vs. Houston
and
Michigan St. +3 vs. Ohio State

Lock and Featured Games

This week I'm going back to the St. Louis Rams for my lock. They have shook up the team and organization once again. Firing coach Linehan was a good move. Thus moving in once promising coach Jim Haslett to the HC position. Haslett promptly pronounced Marc Bulger starter for the remainder of the season. Still, this team is aging and unproductive on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Washington Redskins are an improving team with a physical rushing attack. This should be another laugher. Call your bookie and tell him Redskins -13.

In my featured games, take

Oklahoma -6 1/2 vs. Texas
New Mexico +23 1/2 @ BYU
Bengals +9 at NY Jets
Vikings -13 vs. Lions

There are a few open spots for the $5 Beat Me Challenge. Be sure to get your picks in.

$5 Beat Me Challenge

In order to drum up more interest in my blog, I am offering a $5 prize to anyone who can pick more winners than me this week. Five dollars is not much these days but I will pay as many winners as there are. Also, this is your chance to get bragging rights. Here are the rules:

1. Pick 5 College or NFL football games.
2. Only Saturday, Sunday, and Monday games are available.
3. Use Friday's BetUs lines.
4. You must pick more winners than me to win the prize.
5. Contest open to the first 50 entrants.
6. I will post my picks Friday night.
7. Submit your picks or questions to dyehard5@gmail.com

Lets have fun and good luck.

Last Weeks Results (3-2-1 / 9-4-1 YTD 69%)

Last week's highlights are 1. my lock came through again (3-0 YTD), 2. I made a killing on the Bengals game (with Planet Hollywood's rediculous line). It was, however, a yeoman like week going 3-2-1. That could have easily been at worst 4-1-1, but Purdue's kicker forgot how to do just that, missing 2 FG attempts and a critical (for Purdue wagerers) extra point.

Hope your week was just as profitable. Check back soon for next week's picks.

NFL Featured Picks

Falcons +7 at Packers - some lines have moved down to+3 1/2. I still like to Falcons, possibly to come with an outright win

Bucs +3 at Broncos - I love the Broncos offense, hate their defense. At home, I'll take Denver -3.

Bills -1 1/2 at Cardinals - not sure why the Bills don't get more respect, but I see myself riding this Buffalo for a while as I see my wins ATS rack up.

Bengals +16 1/2 at Cowboys - I'm of the philosphy that you take any NFL team that is getting 17 points or more. For me 16 1/2 is close enough. The thought is that Carson Palmer will not play. Planet Hollywood is so sure that they are giving the Bengals +25!!!! No typo. Bengals +25. I will make a weeks worth of pay on this one game with Planet Hollywood's help. From what I have seen and heard, palmer should play and keep the game respectively close.

Good luck to all. Check back next week for results and next weeks games.

Book it!

Penn St vs. Purdue

Penn St. is getting waaaay too much love and Purdue's Curtis Painter has not been playing up to his talent level. Also, Penn St. is thin on defense due to suspensions.

Take Purdue +13.

Featured Games

Here's this weeks featured games. I will post my CFB picks Saturday morning and NFL picks Sunday morning.

Penn St. (-13) at Purdue
Falcons (+7) at Packers
Buccaneers (+3) at Broncos
Bills (-1 1/2) at Cardinals
Bengals (+16) at Cowboys

Another Lock in the NFL

Just because the Ford's finally woke up and canned hapless Matt Millen, that doesn't mean the Lions are going to be any better. Bettors and the general public must really be enamored with Detroit's offensive weapons because they keep laying money on them, thus keeping the line tight. In their last 11 games, the Lions are 1-10 ATS.

I think folks are discounting Kyle Orton's abilities. He didn't look particularly great in his few starts a couple of years ago, but, for the most part he is getting the job done this year. However, he doesn't have to be great or even good. The Lions defense is horrendous. And, their run D is Swiss cheese, giving up an incredible 207 yards a game on the ground. Look for the rookie Matt Forte to have a lot of carries and a big day. The success onthe ground should eliminate the need for Orton to pass the ball frequently and avoid 3rd and long situations

Take the Bears -3 1/2. BOOK IT!!!

Results: 3-1!!!

Last week I went 3-1. My only loss came from a close defeat of the Eagles to the Bears. That game could have easily went the other way and given me a perfect 4-0 week. My Lock of the Week started off shaky in the Bills/Rams game. However, I was spot on. Trent Green may or may not have been directly responsible for the scoring surge last week (4 points above their average). But, it was their trusty defense that put money in the bank if you listened to my advice.

So far this year I am 6-2 and 2-0 in lock games. Assuming you bet 1 unit on the regular games and 1.5 units on the locks, you would currently be up 5 units. Here' s an example:

Your average bet is $100 = 1 unit
Your "lock" bet is $150 = 1.5 units

4 wins (4 units = $400)
2 lock wins (3 units = $300)
2 losses (-2 units = -$200)
Total year to date = 5 units/$500

Of course, this doesn't include juice that legal book makers such as in Las Vegas charges. Even so, in the example, you would be up $480.

Stay tuned. I will have next weekends locks posted in the next day or two.

Good luck and stay profitable.

Other Picks

My other picks that are likely to make you money.

1. New York Jets -1 1/2
2. SanDiego Chargers -8
3. Philadelphia Eagles -3

Here's Your Lock

I have a couple that I feel good about. But this one came to me late, only after I did some additional research.

If you want to make money, call your bookie, and tell him you want the Buffalo Bills giving up the points. Right now they are an 8 point favorite at the St. Louis Rams. Those are a lot of points to give up in the NFL on the road, but I have faith in the Rams. Consider this. They are 0-3 this year ATS and have been 9 - 9 1/2 point dogs in each game. Each game they were blown out. The average score was 39 -10.

So what do the Rams do to solve their problems? Bench Bulger and insert Trent Green. Ok, let's say Green provides a spark and adds an extra touchdown worth of production, that narrows the gap to 39-17. Still a blowout. Still a winner for those who take my advice. After you collect, send me an email to share your joy.

First Loss of the Year

After a 3-0 start, the San Diego Chargers broke the streak with a decisive win over Brett Favre and the New York Jets. Going into Monday night, The Chargers were 0-2 ATS and the Jets were 1-1 ATS but 1-0 ATS on the road.

In their previous 2 games, the Chargers relied too much on the pass and received unusually low production from LT. The Jets hadn't put up big offensive numbers, but each week Brett Favre should be expected to become more comfortable with his new teammates and playbook.

Unfortunately, turnovers and a porous defense did the Jets in.